The fantasy football season is nearly upon us. People are doing their research, trying to figure out who the best sleepers will be, what pitfalls to avoid early, and scout their draft position. The preparation sometimes is as much fun as the actual draft itself. It’s the hard work you put in that feels so good when you make those mid-to-late round selections that pay off big time. One of the aspects to scouting that’s different every year is trying to figure out a player’s potential when they have changed teams. That’s exactly the case with Miami Dolphins running back Chase Edmonds.
The Dolphins signed Edmonds through free agency this offseason. His talent is undeniable. All you had to do was watch some tape on him to see the ability he possesses, both in the run and pass game. So, the question is, what should be your expectation for him in fantasy football this season?
Here is Chase Edmonds’ fantasy football outlook for the 2022 NFL season.
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As I mentioned before, there is not much question regarding Edmonds’ ability. He is explosive, can run both between the tackles and make guys miss on the outside. He’s also an excellent receiver out of the backfield. That last part cannot be understated and I will get into why shortly.
But one of the biggest reasons to proceed with caution does not even have to do with him. It’s what the Dolphins added alongside Edmonds. Miami brought in former NFC Championship Game hero Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel. Plus, Myles Gaskin is still on the roster, listed fourth on the depth chart.
Mostert is a powerful, downhill runner with explosiveness and speed. He doesn’t have great hands, and might be the most injury prone running back in all of football.
Michel is very durable and equally powerful. He lacks the breakaway speed to make a significant impact. However, he has always shown to have a nose for the goal line and could very easily poach four to eight touchdowns this year.
Gaskin fell out of favor last season after a breakout season the year before. But he is actually the closest type player to Edmonds. He’s a bit on the smaller side, can make guys miss and has very good hands.
So, despite the talent being there, it’s a very serious question of how much of the workload will Edmonds carry.
Dolphins running backs present fantasy football
— TexasDem (@TexasDem2) August 1, 2022
So, we have talked about the issues with opportunity. But drafting in fantasy football is as much about value as it is anything else once you get beyond the first few rounds. Yes, you want to and need to hit on your studs. But you cannot win a fantasy league with your first few picks. You can, however, lose a league.
Assuming you made the right selections early, you are probably staring at guys like Chase Edmonds in the sixth or seventh round of your draft. I believe that is far too high, but he will go there anyway. His ADP (average draft position) currently sits at pick #87, which is currently early 8th round in 12-team leagues. I expect that will creep up as the season gets closer.
Players like Tony Pollard and Melvin Gordon II also have been going in this range. But I would much prefer Pollard and Gordon to Edmonds. I say that despite believing that Edmonds might be the most talented of the three.
There are obviously the snap count concerns I have addressed. But the new Dolphins running back has dealt with his fair share of injuries in the past. Last season, he missed five games with injury. He missed three games two seasons prior to that. So, Edmonds has shown to be somewhat injury prone, albeit not having been with a major injury.
But everything I have said thus far does not mean he is going to be a bust. You just need to know the risks when drafting him.
In fact, there is a ton of upside with Edmonds as well.
2021 RB Targets Per Game
**Minimum 40 Targets**
Full data set in the tweet under this. pic.twitter.com/HwVIW4YFv6
— Nick Skrip (@P2WFantasy) June 13, 2022
Among qualifying running backs last season, Chase Edmonds ranked eighth with 4.42 targets per game. Also last season, despite his struggles, Gaskin finished not far behind with 3.7 targets per game. Assuming he is relegated to the end of the depth chart, all of those targets should come Edmonds’ way.
He has great hands and Tua Tagovailoa loves to check it down. Miami faces the third easiest schedule for running backs entering the 2022 season. So, there is certainly reason for optimism. Just be aware if you are counting on him being your every week RB2, there is a lot of risk there.